India crude steel output will increase significantly
The next few years, India's crude steel output will increase significantly, according to the grand goal of the Government of India, 2025 crude steel production capacity to 300 million tons. With the expansion of production capacity, India could become a major exporter of steel?
Some analysts believe that India's crude steel production 89 million tons last year, according to an annual capacity of 113 million tons meter, less than 80% capacity utilization. If maintaining the utilization levels, which means that crude steel production in 2025 will be 240 million tons, while demand is expected to only 1.55-1.7 million tons of excess production capacity will inevitably turned to the export market, increasing international steel overcapacity situation.
However, it was also suggested that India can not become a major steel exporter. CEO of Essar Steel DilipOommen noted that the Indian government's capacity expansion targets too optimistic, crude steel production in India by 2025 will not be more than 225 million tons, unless demand growth over 12%, and domestic consumption is able to absorb most of the future The new capacity. Indian steel manufacturer Kalyani Steel Company general manager said that even if there are 200 million tons of new capacity, some of the old plant are not competitive due to be turned off.
I want to say is:
First, the Indian steel industry is to strive to achieve the 2025 target annual capacity of 300 million tons of Planning and Development, the goal seems to be too optimistic, it is unlikely to meet expectations. There are already more than 300 memorandums of understanding were signed, a total of 406 million tons of steel production capacity, but most projects are still affected by land acquisition, infrastructure and raw materials, energy, water and other resources acquired constraints, even if major domestic steel mills positive promoting capacity expansion.
Second, India's steel demand growth will be lower than expected, may be reduced to 4% -5%. While Modi government since taking office, the Indian steel industry have high hopes, but the Indian government to implement the new policy can be found on the steel industry policy is not satisfactory, the slow progress of infrastructure projects. World Steel Association recently forecast that this year up by 7.1 percent to 81.5 million tons, a further increase of 7.6% to 87.6 million tons next year, the optimistic growth forecast has been questioned.
But no matter how the future of India's steel production growth, India's steel consumption will not stop growing, and the huge potential and the lack of will by the imports to meet supply. As a large developing country with a large number of young people, the current per capita steel consumption is only 59 kg, far below the world average of 216 kg, in particular, has great potential in rural demand, the government should encourage rural consumers of steel instead of brick and concrete houses.